Oplæg af professor Sarah Hobolt

Public Service Decline and Support for the Populist Right

Abstract: The rise of populist right parties is well-studied, but little attention has been given to how public service performance influences voter support. Given that public services are often the primary means through which citizens interact with the state, we argue that declining public services can create grievances with the political establishment that increase the appeal of populist right parties. Focusing on England’s National Health Service (NHS), we combine administrative data on local health facility closures with panel data on public preferences and voting intentions. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that closures reduce patient satisfaction and increase support for populist right parties. These effects are moderated by migrant registrations at local health practices, highlighting the interaction between public service decline and immigration. Our findings underscore the role of public service decline as a driver of support for populist parties, especially in areas undergoing rapid demographic change.

Short bio: Sara B. Hobolt holds the Sutherland Chair in European Institutions and is a professor at the Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science. Previously, she was a professor at the University of Oxford. Hobolt’s research lies in political behavior, public opinion and the EU, and comparative politics. She has published five books and over 70 journal articles, including in American Political Science Review, Annual Review of Political Science, British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, International Organization and Journal of Politics. Her most recent book is Political Entrepreneurs. The Rise of Challenge Parties in Europe (Princeton University Press, 2020, with Catherine De Vries). Hobolt is the current President of the European Political Science Association (EPSA), Associate Editor of Political Science Research and Methods (PSRM), and the Chair of the European Election Studies (EES). Hobolt has been awarded several prizes for her research, including the 2011 APSA Emerging Scholar Award for her contribution to the field of elections, public opinion and voting behavior, and in 2012 the Nils Klim Prize for her outstanding contribution in the academic fields of the arts and humanities or social sciences. In 2017, she was elected Fellow of the British Academy as its youngest member.

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